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LNG Hunt Less Likely as Milder Asia Winter Seen

26th November 2018

(Bloomberg) — Prospects for a milder winter in Asia may make the frenzied seasonal hunt for liquefied natural gas less likely this year and hurt the outlook for prices, which have tumbled for the past seven weeks.

Weather across North Asia is expected to be warmer this winter than last year, according to four forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, who added temperatures could come in at or above historical averages. That could weaken demand for the fuel, with storage levels in Japan, China and South Korea near multiyear-highs.

Asia’s LNG users have been stocking up on gas well ahead of the winter season to avoid a supply crunch like last year, when freezing temperatures exacerbated a Chinese-backed drive to promote cleaner-burning gas over coal and pushed prices to the highest levels since 2014. Snow in Japan last winter also compelled the country’s largest utility to purchase power from rivals as heating demand skyrocketed.

“With warmer weather expected now, the demand pull from China would be even less,” Xizhou Zhou, an analyst at IHS Markit, said by email. “The kind of tightness in the market we had seen last year will unlikely repeat.”

Spot LNG prices in North Asia have slumped for seven weeks in the longest losing streak since January 2016, mirroring a slide in oil that has given up most of its gains this year. Buyers across the region are so well-stocked with the fuel that some are considering selling or swapping cargoes.

“Last winter was persistently cold, especially in Japan, as a result of northerly flow bringing cold air down from Siberia; we do not expect the same pattern to recur,” said Richard James, a senior scientist at World Climate Service, a joint venture between Prescient Weather Ltd. and MeteoGroup. “We expect the winds over east Asia to be directed generally from the southwest this winter, which will bring much warmer conditions on average.”

El Nino, the warming in Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures, has emerged and there’s a high chance of it continuing through the Northern Hemisphere spring, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Friday. The weather pattern tends to cause warmer temperatures during winters in Japan.

More weather forecasts: Weather volatility is expected to be high, especially in the second half of the winter, as warm spells alternate with a few outbreaks of unusual cold, according to World Climate Service.  Japan, South Korea and the North China Plain are forecast to have near normal winter weather, according to Radiant Solutions. Northern Manchuria is expected to have below normal temperatures.  While this winter season is expected to see occasional cold outbreaks, these are likely to occur with less frequency, and will tend to be of weaker magnitude than a more typical winter, according to MetraWeather.  Most of eastern China, South Korea and Japan may see temperatures near or slightly above normal for the winter, but there are risks of cold shots late in the season in parts of Manchuria, the Korean Peninsula and northern Japan, according to AccuWeather. Japan’s temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal from November to January, according to a late-October forecast from JMA. Warmer weather will be focused on western Japan, the agency said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Stapczynski in Tokyo at sstapczynsk1@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi at ralrikabi@bloomberg.net Jasmine Ng, Aaron Clark.

 

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APEC ends in disarray after US-China spat over final statement

19th November 2018

(Nov 19): An Asia-Pacific summit ended in tumult after the US and China failed to agree on language in a final statement, the latest sign that a trade war between the world’s biggest economies won’t end anytime soon.

For the first time since leaders began attending the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in 1993, no statement was issued after two days of talks in Papua New Guinea. The Pacific island nation’s prime minister, Peter O’Neill, blamed “two big giants in the room” for the discord.

The failure to agree on a largely symbolic statement lowers expectations for US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to reach a breakthrough when they meet a few weeks from now at a Group of 20 summit in Argentina. Financial markets have swerved in recent weeks as investors gauge whether an end to the trade war is near.

Tensions were already high heading into Sunday after Xi and Vice President Mike Pence traded barbs in back-to-back speeches a day earlier. Pence warned nations against taking Chinese loans, saying the US “doesn’t drown our partners in a sea of debt,” while Xi said implementing tariffs and breaking up supply chains was “short-sighted” and “doomed to failure.”

The events in Port Moresby were unusual for a summit that is mostly regarded as a talk shop. The non-binding statements at the end of such gatherings consist of thousands of words covering anodyne topics such as urbanisation, sustainable tourism, natural disasters and “MSMEs” (micro, small and medium enterprises).

The first sign of trouble occurred when reports dripped out that Papua New Guinea police were called after Chinese officials attempted to “barge” into the office of the country’s foreign minister to influence the document. Chinese officials later denied the report, calling it “a rumour spread by some people with a hidden agenda.”

As reporters waited for an outcome, it became clear something was wrong. After the closing press conference was delayed, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau eventually confirmed that negotiations over the communique had collapsed.

“I don’t think it will come as a huge surprise that there are differing visions on particular elements in regard to trade,” Trudeau told reporters on Sunday. “That prevented there from being a full consensus on the communique document.”

When Papua New Guinea’s O’Neill finally spoke to the press, initially he said a formal statement would come at a later date, and he left without taking questions. Reporters then chased him through the building, resulting in a chaotic scrum.

Eventually O’Neill confirmed that the topic of World Trade Organization reforms was the main cause of the dispute, though he said it wasn’t “only the US and China.” Nations have been calling for key changes at the WTO, including around dispute settlement, while the Trump administration has threatened to pull out of the body if it doesn’t treat the US more fairly.

“Of course the whole world is concerned about the debate about trade relations between China and the US,” O’Neill said. “This is a situation where both the countries need to sit down and resolve. And I believe the G-20 meeting that is going to be on very shortly will be an opportunity for the leaders to sit down and resolve those issues.”

The chaos of the closing press conference reflected the challenges of holding the summit in one of the region’s poorest countries. A lack of hotel accommodation meant many delegates and journalists slept on a cruise ship. Port Moresby is notorious for being crime-ridden: The Lonely Planet says “visitors are tempted to spend as little time here as possible.” Both the US and China sought to deflect blame.

Wang Xiaolong, a Chinese foreign ministry official, said “many countries” raised issues about the WTO. He didn’t elaborate on specifics.

“Frankly speaking we are in an early stage of discussing these issues,” said Wang, director-general of the Department of International Economic Affairs at China’s foreign ministry. “Different countries have different ideas about how to take this forward.”

A US official familiar with the talks said it’s inaccurate for China to say the communique was held up due to American concerns about the WTO. The US agreed to language over improving the global trade body’s dispute settlement function, the official said, adding that the talks collapsed because China objected to a line that all other 20 economies had endorsed.

‘This Is Not Frustrating’
At issue was a pledge by the governments to fight “all unfair trade practices,” which China thought was unfairly singling them out, said the US official, who asked not to be identified as the discussions were private. The US had agreed to a line on fighting protectionism, the official said, a concession designed to allow the communique to go forward.

The US official said it appeared as if China didn’t want to reach a consensus, and Chinese negotiators applauded when it was announced that talks had collapsed.

O’Neill, Papua New Guinea’s leader, sought to look on the bright side.

“We had almost 21 economies agreeing to the issues,” he told reporters. “This is not frustrating.”

 

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Finding Oil Floor Is Going to Take More Time

19th November 2018

Finding a floor for oil is going to take more time.

That’s according to CIBC Private Wealth Management Senior Energy Trader Rebecca Babin, who expressed her view in a television interview with Bloomberg on Thursday.

“It’s hard to say when you’ve had huge volatility spikes where the floor is. This was an avalanche of selling pressure that just hit the commodity and if you get in front of an avalanche, you might get buried,” Babin told Bloomberg in the interview.

“I think we … certainly saw a deceleration of the supply and the technicals pushing it lower but finding a floor is going to take more time. You can’t just pick a day and say here’s the floor necessarily,” Babin added.

“What drove this move was a lot of factors, it was supply, it was demand, it was technicals, it was risk off on global assets, so I think you’re going to need to see some consolidation and more data before you can come out and claim we’ve found a floor,” Babin continued.

In a separate television interview with Bloomberg yesterday, Chris Ralph, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place Wealth Management said, “it does feel as though we must be getting to a level where oil will probably bottom out from here”.

Tamar Essner, energy director at Nasdaq IR Intelligence, told Bloomberg in a television interview on Wednesday that she thought the market is overreacting.

“Oil markets tend to easily overshoot to both the upside and to the downside,” Essner told Bloomberg in the interview.

 

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Unclear Brexit Deal Could Damage UK Oil Industry

19th November 2018

The UK’s draft withdrawal agreement for leaving the European Union lacks clarity, which could be damaging to the UK oil and gas industry with increased costs for retaining skilled workers, analysts warn.

Earlier this week, the draft Brexit divorce deal from the EU was published, and according to analysts, it contains a lot of uncertainties in many areas.

“It’s bringing even less certainty than we had before. We don’t know if we will be leaving the customs union and it’s asking more questions than are being answered which I think will be disturbing for the oil and gas industry,” David Gibbons Wood, a business and economics lecturer at Robert Gordon University (RGU), told The Press and Journal.

Companies will react quickly once there is clarity regarding the investment and trading backdrop, but the current uncertainty is not helping the industry, according to Wood.

Yet, oil and gas is a global sector, not just an EU one, so there could be less damage compared to other industries, he noted.

According to Fiona Cincotta, a senior analyst at City Index, the UK North Sea oil and gas industry will definitely feel the cost of keeping skilled EU workers.

“Given that Brexit, with or without Theresa May’s deal, looks to restrict movement of people between UK and EU and vice versa the impact on the sector could be large, especially in an industry where competition for talent is fierce,” Cincotta told The Press and Journal.

Oil & Gas UK, the sector’s trade association, welcomed the publication of the draft Brexit deal, but said that it would need time to analyze its potential impact on the industry.

“Our focus remains on securing the best outcome for the UK’s offshore oil and gas industry. That is, protecting the offshore industry from future EU regulatory changes, minimal friction between the UK and EU, maintaining a strong voice in Europe, protecting energy trading and the internal energy market and protecting our licence to operate,” Oil & Gas UK chief executive Deirdre Michie told The Press and Journal.

 

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Natural Gas Markets Remain Ultra Tight

19th November 2018

Natural gas prices skyrocketed this week, shooting above $4.80 per MMBtu on Wednesday, a price last seen during the polar vortex of 2014.

Low gas inventories are leaving the market on edge, and volatility has roared back to the market. In this column only a week ago, I marveled at prices soaring to $3.50/MMBtu, which marked a 15 percent increase over the prior two months. However, in the last seven days, prices are up a further 30 percent.

The factors behind the price increase are the same as they have been for quite a while now. U.S. natural gas inventories are at a 15-year low for this time of year, just as we head into the winter drawdown season. U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3,247 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending on November 9, or 528 Bcf less than at this point in 2017, and 601 Bcf below the five-year average. In other words, the U.S. has a thin buffer of storage to fall back on in the event of a sudden bout of cold weather.

And it is exactly that variable that helped spark the most recent rally in prices. Reports that cold weather has arrived in much of the U.S. already, plus indications that the upcoming winter could be an unusually cold one, helped fuel this week’s rally. Natural gas had traded below $3/MMBtu for much of this year, but climbed roughly 50 percent since mid-September.

Just a few weeks ago, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that given the backdrop of a 15-year low for inventories, any unexpected cold weather could push prices up as high as $5/MMBtu. That may have looked a little aggressive at the time, but now appears rather prescient.

A few other factors have played their part. “[E]arly-season cold, production freeze-offs, and the ramp up of exports from Corpus Christi – have shocked the gas market in ways not seen since the Polar Vortex winter of 2013/14,” Barclays said in a note.

The bank estimates that since the weekend, freeze-offs have disrupted about 2 Bcf/d of pipeline flows, about three-quarters of which came in Texas. These disruptions could extend into next week. Skyrocketing associated gas production in the Permian heightens the potential disruption to supply from freeze-offs.

Finally, trader positioning also played a role in Wednesday’s price spike. Prices broke through technical resistance levels over the last few days and traders likely closed out short positions en masse, driving prices higher.

 

For the full article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Markets-Remain-Ultra-Tight.html  

 

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ADNOC to Invest $1.4 billion to Upgrade Bu Hasa Field

19th November 2018

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has announced a $1.4 billion investment to upgrade and expand its Bu Hasa field, which will increase crude oil production capacity to 650,000 bpd. This is an important step towards delivery of ADNOC’s 2030 smart growth strategy that seeks to increase its crude oil production capacity and reduce cost to create a more profitable upstream business.

An engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract has been awarded to Tecnicas Reunidas SA by ADNOC’s subsidiary, ADNOC Onshore, which operates the field. The works are expected to take 39 months to complete and the upgrade will increase oil production capacity from 550,000 bpd to 650,000 bpd by the end of 2020.

The EPC contract was signed by Yasser Saeed Al Mazrouei, CEO of ADNOC Onshore and Ricardo Sanchez Galindo, upstream business development director, Tecnicas Reunidas. The contract signing, which took place on ADNOC’s stand at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), was witnessed by His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE minister of state and ADNOC Group CEO; Arthur Wallace Crossley, CEO upstream, Tecnicas Reunidas; and Abdulmunim Al Kindy, ADNOC’s upstream director.

The award of the EPC contract follows the recent endorsement, by Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Petroleum Council’s, of ADNOC’s plans to increase its crude oil production capacity to 4 MMbpd by 2020, and 5 MMbpd by 2030.

H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber said, “This significant investment in the Bu Hasa field will enable production capacity to be increased and generate additional value. We are on track to meet our production capacity target of 3.5 MMbopd by the end of this year – to 4 MMbpd by the end of 2020 – and this contract is yet another sign of our clear commitment to making smart investments to maximize the value of Abu Dhabi’s oil resources and drive significant In-Country Value, in line with our wise leadership’s directives.”

The asset upgrade and expansion includes facilities, new pipeline networks and production hubs, as well as the conversion of three trains in a central degassing station and other related facilities. In addition to the incremental oil production from Bu Hasa, the project will streamline water handling, implement a second gas lift recovery phase and improve the overall production efficiency while reducing the number of inactive wells.

Abdulmunim Al Kindy said, “Tecnicas Reunidas SA has been selected to deliver and execute this important project after an extremely competitive tendering process, ensuring they will contribute in excess of 60% of the total contract as in-country value, which will amount to over $800 million of value add to the UAE economy. We are partnering with an organization that can deploy effective engineering and value-add technologies in support of our company-wide drive for greater efficiency and reduced cost, while maintaining the highest safety standards.”

The Bu Hasa field, located 200 km south of Abu Dhabi city, is one of ADNOC’s oldest oil fields, with production starting in 1965. It is operated by ADNOC Onshore.

 

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Deals Worth $80.9B Concluded in Upstream Oil and Gas in 3Q18

19th November 2018

A total of 362 deals with a combined value of US$80.9bn were registered in the upstream oil and gas industry in Q3 2018, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Of the total value, US$44.5bn was registered in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Q3 2018, representing a significant increase of 77% from the US$25.1bn in M&A deals announced in Q2 2018. On the capital raising front, a total value of US$36.5bn in capital raising was announced in the upstream sector in Q3 2018, an increase of 19% from the US$30.7bn in capital raising announced in the previous quarter.

The company’s latest report: ‘Quarterly Upstream M&A and Capital Raising Deals Review – Q3 2018’ states that a total of 111 M&A deals, with a combined value of US$13bn, were recorded in the conventional segment, and 88 deals, with a combined value of US$31.5bn, were recorded in the unconventional segment, in the quarter.

Of the total M&A deals, 156 deals, with a combined value of US$37.5bn, were domestic acquisitions and the remaining 43, with a combined value of US$7bn, were cross-border transactions. A quarter-on-quarter comparison shows a substantial increase in domestic transaction values in Q3 2018, compared to US$17.6bn in Q2 2018. However, cross-border transaction values decreased by 7% in Q3 2018 compared to US$7.5bn in Q2 2018.

Capital raising, through debt offerings, witnessed an increase of 20% in deal value, recording US$32.4bn in Q3 2018, compared with US$27.1bn in Q2 2018. However, the number of debt offering deals decreased by 10% from 60 in Q2 2018 to 54 deals in Q3 2018.

Capital raising, through equity offerings, registered a decrease of 3% in the number of deals and 8% in deal value with 98 deals, of a combined value of US$2.4bn, in Q3 2018, compared with 101 deals, of a combined value of US$2.6bn, in the previous quarter. 11 private equity/venture capital deals, with a combined value of US$1.7bn, were recorded in the upstream industry in Q3 2018, compared with 12 deals, with a combined value of US$950.3m, in Q2 2018.

Americas remained the frontrunner for M&A and capital raising, registering 132 M&A deals, with a total value of US$32.6bn; and 68 capital raising transactions worth US$20.6bn in Q3 2018. EMEA registered 45 M&A deals of a combined value of US$8.3bn, and 38 capital raising deals worth US$13.4bn; while APAC registered 22 M&A deals of a combined value of US$3.7bn and 57 capital raising deals worth US$2.5bn in Q3 2018.

 

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Upstream Digitalization Could Save $75 Billion Annually

19th November 2018

Digitalization in upstream: show me the money, a new report from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates the upstream sector could see annual cost savings of $75 billion annually from digitalization by 2023.

The biggest benefit from digitalization would be the ability to uncover new resources, says Greig Aitken, principal analyst in Wood Mackenzie’s corporate analysis team. This may be from better processing of seismic data or gaining new understanding of well logs and chemical analysis.

While the ultimate goal is for machine learning and artificial intelligence to process data and spot hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs with an almost perfect success rate, secondary benefits include making better, faster decisions on where and how to drill or whether to drill at all.

Aitken said: “By accessing effectively unlimited computing power via the cloud, Cairn Energy, which began its digital transformation in 2015, now has the ability to shave months off its 3D seismic processing. For an exploration-focused company such as Cairn, the improved speed at which it can make drill-or-drop decisions is transformational.”

since 2014, upstream operators have spent, on average, $50 billion annually on exploration. Using the 2014-2017 average activity and spend levels as the base, Wood Mackenzie’s analysis shows that over the next five years, potential cost savings of $5 billion-$7 billion (10-15 percent) per year in exploration could be achievable.

Similar savings could be achieved in drilling, completion and field development. For example, Equinor believes its “field of the future” concept will reduce offshore facility capex by around 30 percent.

Mhairidh Evans, principal analyst, upstream supply chain, said: “Such a dramatic reduction could have a top-line impact, enabling the monetization of currently sub-commercial reserves. Equinor sees most of the headline-grabbing cost cuts being enabled by automated platforms, such as Oseberg H, the first unmanned platform in the Norwegian sector.”

She added: “Worker-free environments mean smaller topsides with no accommodation modules and no supply vessels. Of course, this can only be achieved if every process can be automated or managed remotely – a point that underscores the potentially transformational impact of the digital twin.”

A digital twin is a virtual copy of a physical asset – replicating the dynamics of each valve, pipe and cable, as well as the structural integrity of the facilities. This allows simulation of outcomes on an unprecedented scale. BP is one of a number of oil and gas companies that have already implemented this technology, with the rollout of its Apex program.

“Even without automated platforms, digitalization will lead to cost savings in the pre-FEED and FEED stages of traditional developments,” Evans said. “Automated modeling can generate economic outcomes for a field under a range of development concepts and a continuum of variables. This isn’t new. But big data analytics infuses these models with real-world experience, allowing data-driven decisions to be made faster, with more confidence.”

The upstream industry’s track record in project execution has historically been a source of doubt for investors. Wood Mackenzie’s research shows that over the past decade, the average project was delivered six months late, with costs up 14 percent versus the forecast at final investment decision (FID).

The conventional industry’s opex spend is over $340 billion each year, and while new developments stand to benefit most from digitalization, it can also be implemented at existing fields, with remarkable results, says Wood Mackenzi. The analysis below is based on a five percent reduction in annual field operating costs, and a one percent increase in annual field production.

For many assets, this is already a conservative assumption. For example, Total expects an opex reduction of almost 10 percent at the under-development Culzean field in the U.K. North Sea through the application of a digital package.

Production gains through increased uptime is a potentially more valuable gain. For example, a one percent increase from each conventional producing asset on stream globally in 2018 would result in an additional 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the market – this is roughly equivalent to the total output from Libya.

Aitken says that large shocks to the system precipitate action, and automation efforts gathered speed in the last three years following the oil price crash and subsequent recovery. BP claims to have added 30,000 barrels of production last year due to its use of the APEX system and cites an example in the Gulf of Mexico of system optimization being reduced from 24-30 hours to just 20 minutes.

While the majors may have more tools at their disposal, the transformational benefits digitalization offers are available to all, even the smallest operators, says Wood Mackenzie.

 

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Big Oil Reuses Platforms in Latest Cost-Cutting Trick

19th November 2018

(Bloomberg) — Oil companies have pushed through draconian cost cuts during the recent industry slump, but they’re not quite done yet.

Spain’s Repsol SA unveiled plans to re-use its Gyda platform in Norway’s North Sea on another field, an unprecedented step for a fixed installation, according to the head of Repsol’s Norwegian subsidiary Vidar Nedrebo.

Repsol has spent almost a year with partners Kvaerner ASA, Allseas Group SA and Subsea 7 SA studying ways to move the platform from its current location, make necessary modifications at shore, and transport it to a new field, Nedrebo told the Operators Conference in Stavanger on Wednesday. Repsol is in talks with two companies that could use the platform, or may possibly reserve it for use on a future discovery of its own, he said in a subsequent interview.

Gyda started producing in 1990, with output peaking at almost 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 1994. It’s due to cease production in May but is in “very good technical condition,” Nedrebo said. The move would cut decommissioning costs, estimated at 5.7 billion kroner ($672 million) for Gyda and result in a big reduction in what could be billions of dollars of investments for its new user.

“There’s significant upside for the owner of the fields that can use this,” Nedrebo said. “A 25 percent cost reduction compared to the best available alternative.”

Reusable Jackets

The platform’s steel jacket could also be re-used, provided it fits the water depth at the new field, Nedrebo said. Possible new locations span the entire North Sea, from the U.K. to Denmark and the Netherlands.

The re-use of Gyda and similar platforms has become a realistic option thanks to the ability of Allseas vessel Pioneering Spirit to move and install a structure of this size in one single lift. The world’s biggest construction vessel earlier this year placed a 22,000-ton drilling platform on Equinor ASA’s Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea.

In 2011, Equinor unsuccessfully attempted to sell the Huldra platform in the North Sea for re-use. It posted the platform on classified-ad website Finn.no in a humorous tone that suggested it had limited hopes of finding a buyer.

That’s not Repsol’s intention.

“Quite the contrary,” Nedrebo said. “By advertising it on Finn you actually ridicule the whole concept in my opinion. We’ve actually made a real investment in looking at the possibilities for re-use.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Mikael Holter in Oslo at mholter2@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at jherron9@bloomberg.net Helen Robertson, Amanda Jordan.

 

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Singapore bank loan growth to slow to 3% in 2019

12th November 2018

Trade tensions and higher interest rates will dampen borrowing.

Loans extended by Singapore banks is poised to fall to 4% by end-2018 and 3% by 2019 as deepening US-China trade tensions and an upswing in interest rates continue to weigh in on sentiment, according to Fitch Solutions,

“We believe that the loan growth outlook for Singapore commercial banks is poor due to a combination of worsening global conditions arising from trade tensions and higher borrowing costs, as well as strict property restrictions,” the research firm said in report.

Loan growth at commercial banks has already tapered off to 4.5% in September which represents the lowest level since February as corporate loans weakened. The subdued performance of loans extended to business is expected to remain dismal over the coming months, warned Fitch Solutions, as growing economic uncertainties threaten borrowing activity.

Sentiment in the manufacturing and service sectors has already soured to represent its first negative reading in two years with sentiment in the precision engineering and electronics segment clouding outlook.

“In addition, we expect the services sector to feel negative spill-over effects from weakness in the manufacturing sector arising from trade tensions and higher borrowing costs,” added Fitch Solutions.

On the consumer front, July’s property curbs have hit the banks’ profitable housing and boarding loan business which account for 76.7% of overall consumer loans. Such loans have already slid by 3.5% in September from a high of 4.8% in May with Fitch Solutions anticipating the growing likelihood of further slowdown as regulators are not expected to let up on the property market anytime soon.

The mortgage loan book of the three banks represent 20% of their overall loan portfolio as of Q1, according to Jefferies, with UOB having the largest exposure at 28% followed by OCBC at 26%. DBS has the least mortgage loan book at 22% of its total lending book.

 

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