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Oil producing countries defer 2019 cuts until next month

12th November 2018

Abu Dhabi: Oil markets are well supplied and any decision regarding output cuts for 2019 will be taken at a crucial meeting in Vienna next month, ministers from Opec and non-Opec members said in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia’s Energy minister Khalid Al Falih said oil markets are adequately supplied and they will work hard to balance the markets. He also added that they will never guarantee a certain price.

“There will be fluctuations in oil prices and inventories,” Al Falih told reporters at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting in Abu Dhabi.

Ideally we don’t like to cut, we like to keep the market liberally supplied and comfortable. We will only cut if we see a persistent glut emerging and quite frankly we are seeing some signs of this coming out of the US. We have not seen the signs globally.

– Khalid Al Falih | Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister

“We have not yet started discussions of cuts as yet. There is a possibility for cuts but we have to wait and see.”

He further said that they will not shy away from cutting if there is a need and oil market sentiment has clearly shifted to concerns about over supply.

$85 – Average oil price per barrel in October

“Ideally we don’t like to cut, we like to keep the market liberally supplied and comfortable. We will only cut if we see a persistent glut emerging and quite frankly we are seeing some signs of this coming out of the US. We have not seen the signs globally.”

UAE Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazroui said “as a group we will not advise any member state to produce when the market does not need.” He also hoped that Opec and non-Opec members will continue to together till 2019 and beyond.

“We have managed to achieve five year average inventory levels this year. We worked together at a difficult time.”

Oman oil minister Mohammad Al Rumhi said they will go with the consensus and are against an oil price of over $100 (Dh367) per barrel because it would affect consumers.

As a group we will not advise any member state to produce when the market does not need.

– Suhail Al Mazroui | UAE Minister of Energy

Al Rumhy also said they are pleased that there have been waivers for Iran. “What is good for Iran is good for the world.”

The comments from the oil ministers come as oil prices currently trade lower due to record oil production from the US as we as waivers granted to eight countries that import oil form Iran including China, India, Japan and Turkey among others.

Balancing market

US reimposed sanctions on Iran last week over its controversial nuclear enrichment programme and asked countries to stop buying oil from Iran.

Brent, the global benchmark was trading at around $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at about $60 per barrel on Sunday.

10.9m Expected US crude output (in bpd) this year

Oil prices plunged from more $85 per barrel on October as supply concerns due to US sanctions waivers as well as growing production from the US and other countries.

According to US-based Energy Information Administration (EIA), average prices for Brent expected to be $72 in 2019 and for West Texas Intermediate it would be $65 per barrel.

EIA also expects US crude oil production rising to 10.9 million barrels per day I 2018, up from 9.4 million barrels per day in 2017, and will average 12.1 million barrels per day in 2019.

Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Al Falih did not give a specific answer when asked by reporters whether oil market is in balance. “We will find out. We have a meeting later in the day,” he told reporters.

Al Falih also held discussions with Iraqi officials on the need to coordinate jointly to bring stability to oil markets, during a meeting in Baghdad on Saturday.

 

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Oil’s Rapid Run of Declines Kicks Up Pressure as OPEC Gathers

12th November 2018

It’s all eyes on OPEC as U.S. oil prices fell for 10 consecutive days, wiping out any gains for the year.

Futures in New York slid 0.8% to settle at $60.19/bbl on Friday, a day after falling into a bear market on concerns growing supplies will overwhelm the market, as the U.S. offered nations waivers to continue buying Iranian oil. The plunge will push OPEC and its allies into a corner as they gather in a highly-anticipated meeting this weekend that could yield a signal on future production cuts.

“The Iranian sanctions were supposed to be a game-changer in the market,” said Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. Producers have been “attempting to pump as much oil as possible right now to soften the blow of those Iranian sanctions, yet Trump comes out and gives waivers.”

Crude’s slump from its early-October peak above $76/bbl comes as U.S. production is at a record, OPEC output is at the highest since 2016, more Iranian crude might make it to market then previously thought and demand growth remains a concern.

WTI futures fell 4.7% this week. Total volume traded was about 44% above the 100-day average on Friday, while a measure of oil market volatility jumped to the highest level since late 2016.

Brent futures for January settlement fell 47 cents to end the session at $70.18/bbl on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since April 9. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.82 premium to January WTI.

A potential agreement by OPEC to return to output cuts would mark the second production U-turn for the group this year. For Saudi Arabia — the world’s biggest crude exporter — it would be the third time in recent years that the kingdom has delivered a supply surge only to quickly backtrack on it.

 

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North Sea Oil and Gas Predicted to Last 20 more Years

12th November 2018

RESERVES from the North Sea are sufficient to help sustain oil and gas production for at least the next 20 years, new figures indicate.

A report published by the UK Government suggests that the overall remaining recoverable reserves and resources range from 10 to 20 billion barrels plus of oil equivalent.

It said production could last beyond the next two decades if additional undeveloped resources can be matured.

The figures were calculated based on production estimates taken from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS).

The UKCS is the region of waters surrounding the United Kingdom in which the country has mineral rights.

It includes parts of the North Sea, the North Atlantic, the Irish Sea and the English Channel.

According to the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), the maturation of contingent resources could present a significant opportunity for the continued development of the UK’s petroleum resources.

They believe that it would require substantial investment in both new field developments and incremental projects.

Contingent resources are estimated to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development.

Nick Terrell, chair of the MER UK Exploration Task Force, said: “The work undertaken by the OGA, which has been independently verified, seeks to further quantify the huge remaining exploration potential of our UK offshore basins.

“The results illustrate the full spectrum of exploration opportunities, from infrastructure-led exploration to high impact deep-water frontier opportunities.”

OGA operations director Gunther Newcombe said: “The OGA has an important role in helping to steward this resource base, revitalise exploration and maximise economic recovery, working closely with industry and government.

“Future success of the basin requires attracting additional investment and drilling, implementing technology, and company collaboration on new and existing developments.”

 

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Big Oil Tells Big Tech Being Arrogant Will Backfire

12th November 2018

(Bloomberg) — One of the biggest oil bosses in the world has a message for hotshot young tech stars: trust me, being arrogant won’t pay off.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said the oil industry’s own behavior in years past has eroded its relationship with society. He warned that tech companies could face similar fates and that “the alarm bells are ringing quite clearly.”

“My company is still trusted in many parts of the world, but we have to be honest — trust in Shell has faded over the decades in western Europe,” he said at the Web Summit conference in Lisbon, Portugal. “But today it doesn’t take decades for trust to fade.”

As a result, Big Oil has found itself mired in expensive investigations and lawsuits. Van Beurden referenced the company’s 2004 reserves scandal, where Shell executives admitted they had overstated the amount of oil on their books. He also brought up an ongoing bribery trial in Italy over its dealings in Nigeria, pollution in the country and climate change more broadly.

“Society’s expectations are rising,” he said. “Even if we believe a deal should be legal at this point in time, if society somehow believes that a deal isn’t ethical they will hold you to account. And that’s exactly what’s happening to us.”

In many ways, the industry has parallels to the products of large tech companies, he said. Like energy, the benefits of technology are “all around us,” and often get taken for granted. So companies can’t ever stop making the case that their products are a good fit for society.

The worst approach is to be arrogant, as oil companies were for much of their existence, he said. Shell is still paying the price for that, and he recommended if the tech sector messes up, they should apologize immediately and scrutinize whether there are cultural problems at the heart of their companies.

“You really want to get the basics right, you really want to get your products right and you really want to stay in step with society,” he said. “Or you can take it from me, society will leave you right behind.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Kelly Gilblom in London at kgilblom@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at jherron9@bloomberg.net Helen Robertson.

 

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Australia Govt Nixes CK’s Pipeline Bid on National Security

12th November 2018

Bloomberg) — CK Group’s A$13 billion ($9.4 billion) bid for gas pipeline operator APA Group was knocked back by Australia’s government on national security concerns, a decision that has the potential to further inflame diplomatic tensions with China.

“I have advised the consortium led by CK Asset Holdings Ltd. of my preliminary view that its proposed acquisition of APA Group would be contrary to the national interest,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said in a statement Wednesday.

His view was based on concerns it would lead to an undue concentration of foreign ownership by a single company group in one of the country’s most significant gas transmission businesses. Frydenberg said he would make a final decision within two weeks.

CK Group, which is headed by Hong Kong tycoon Victor Li, noted in a statement the treasurer’s announcement. APA declined to comment.

The decision scuppers what would have been the Hong Kong-based conglomerate’s biggest overseas deal, which would have given it control of pipelines that deliver about half of Australia’s gas. Rising electricity prices and blackouts have made energy security a hot political issue in the nation, and an overseas acquisition of critical infrastructure would have been sensitive for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government.

Substantial Investor

“My preliminary view is not an adverse reflection on CK Group or the individual companies,” Frydenberg said in the statement. CK Group companies are already a substantial investor in Australia’s gas and electricity sectors and the government “welcomes CK Group’s investments in Australia and its broader contribution to the Australian economy.”

Morrison, who served as treasurer before replacing former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in August, has blocked several deals involving China-linked companies in the past three years, drawing ire from the government in Beijing.

As the most China-dependent developed economy, Australia potentially has a lot to lose should relations with its biggest trading partner deteriorate further. Wine companies complained earlier this year that the frayed ties were behind shipments being delayed at Chinese ports.

The timing of Frydenberg’s announcement could prove awkward for Foreign Minister Marise Payne, who’s due to hold strategic talks in China on Thursday with counterpart Wang Yi. Payne’s visit, the first by an Australian foreign minister to China in almost three years, was seen as marking a potential thaw in tensions in the relationship.

Review Board Concerns

“This decision certainly isn’t surprising and suggests the trend set by Turnbull in knocking back big asset purchases by China-linked companies will be continued under Morrison,” said Martin Drum, a senior political lecturer at Notre Dame University in Perth. “The timing may not be the best for Payne but it could also be seen as allowing her to smooth a few ruffled feathers in Beijing while she’s there.”

The CK deal was cleared in September by the competition regulator, after the conglomerate agreed to sell natural gas pipeline and storage infrastructure assets in Western Australia to appease anti-trust concerns. Frydenberg said concentration of foreign ownership was not a question considered by the regulator.

Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, which assessed the deal for the government, had been unable to reach a unanimous recommendation, Frydenberg said, but did express “its concerns about aggregation and the national interest implications of such a dominant foreign player in the gas and electricity sectors over the longer term.”

CK, whose Australian portfolio includes power distributor Duet Group, has been blocked in the nation before. The government rejected a bid by CK Infrastructure in 2016 for the electricity network Ausgrid, saying it would undermine national security. State Grid Corp. of China’s effort to buy a controlling stake in the electricity distributor was also rejected.

In August, the government banned China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. from supplying next-generation wireless equipment to the nation’s telecom operators. That prompted criticism from Beijing.

The market was half expecting the bid to go through based on APA’s share price, Adrian Atkins, an analyst at Morningstar, said by email. APA shares closed on Thursday at A$9.51, compared with CK’s offer price of A$11. The deal represented a 33 percent premium at the time it was announced.

CK Group’s offer was split among subsidiaries CK Asset Holdings Ltd., CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. and Power Assets Holdings Ltd. Shares of the three companies closed little changed in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

With assistance from Rebecca Keenan and Matthew Burgess. To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Scott in Canberra at jscott14@bloomberg.net; James Thornhill in Sydney at jthornhill3@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net Aaron Clark, Rebecca Keenan.

 

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Pipelines on Wheels: LNG Giant Turns to Trucks

12th November 2018

(Bloomberg) — Gas is in such hot demand in China right now it’s allowing a quirky market to flourish: transporting the fuel on trucks.

Call them pipelines on wheels. The country’s top suppliers are loading liquefied natural gas onto tanker trucks and delivering it to users to make up for insufficient pipeline coverage inland. The method is so effective ENN Group is using it as a primary way to move LNG from its new terminal.

This new kind of gas market has thrived in China over the past few years as the government’s blue-sky policies boosted demand for the cleaner-burning fuel faster than pipelines can be built to support them. It’s also unregulated, allowing nimble sellers to benefit from rising prices during peak consumption seasons, while the city-gate benchmark remains at government-set rates.

“We haven’t seen this kind of volume in trucked LNG anywhere else in the world” said Xizhou Zhou, head of China energy research for IHS Markit. “This market in China is a reflection of the market distortion caused by regulated city-gate prices, increasing supply and demand, and price volatility.”

ENN is betting this method of transporting LNG will endure. The distributor’s new terminal in Zhoushan, a tiny island at the mouth of the Yangtze River, is the first in the world built to load the majority of its imports onto trucks instead of reheating them to their gaseous state for pipelines or power plants.

The facility is designed to import about 3 million tons of LNG a year, with 2 million destined for trucks and the rest for pipelines. But trucking the fuel is expensive. It costs nearly six times more than piping it, according to a study by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies & Research Center in Saudi Arabia.

More Lucrative

Companies like ENN are happy to take this pricier route because it can be more lucrative. Trucked LNG sells for about 4,500 yuan ($650) a ton. That’s two-thirds higher than benchmark Shanghai city-gate rates. Last winter, trucked LNG prices jumped to 7,400 yuan amid a nationwide gas shortage.

The rise of this free-wheeling market shows how China’s natural gas industry, long under the control of the government, is moving toward liberalization. The nation has taken steps toward a free market by auctioning off gas and import terminal space on exchanges, granting third parties access to assets operated mainly by state-owned giants, and revising its pricing mechanism.

Those efforts are also aimed at improving supply efficiency to meet the roughly 20 percent surge in demand. China’s unprecedented crackdown on its noxious smog by replacing coal furnaces with gas burners has become one of the most important factors shaping the global energy market.

Meet Targets

Trucks carried about 19 million tons of LNG to customers last year, accounting for 12 percent of China’s total use, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. estimates. For gas users with limited pipeline coverage, trucking allows them to get hold of supply and meet government’s switching targets, Wen Wang, an analyst at the consultancy firm, said by email.

Given its size, the trucked market could aid China’s transition toward a more market-oriented system. Eliminating gas pricing controls could help save as much as $2.2 billion a year, in part by reducing the use of more expensive trucking, Saudi Arabia’s KAPSARC researchers said in a May report.

“Trucked LNG is helping set the stage for further price deregulation,” Wang said. “As this slice of market grows, more and more users are exposed to market prices instead of regulated prices.”

With assistance from Aibing Guo, Jing Yang, Stephen Stapczynski and Sarah Chen. To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Murtaugh in Singapore at dmurtaugh@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi at ralrikabi@bloomberg.net Jasmine Ng, Aaron Clark.

 

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Top Commodity Traders Expect Oil Prices To Drop In 2019

5th November 2018

Most of the world’s top oil trading houses expect oil prices to decline next year as slowing global economic growth and rising oil supply is expected to compensate for fewer Iranian crude barrels on the market, executives at the largest oil traders said at the Reuters Global Commodities Summit on Friday.

According to Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy, oil markets are not that tight right now and a fair price of oil going into 2019 “is probably closer to the $70 or $65 per barrel mark than the $85-$90 area that some people are talking about.”

Nearly a month ago, at the Oil & Money conference in London in early October, the top executives of Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor, and Glencore predicted the price of oil next year at between $65 and $100 a barrel due to a combination of many other factors apart from the U.S. sanctions on Iran.

While Vitol Group chairman Ian Taylor was the most bearish among the top oil traders, seeing Brent Crude at $65 a barrel next year, Trafigura’s chief executive Jeremy Weir was the most bullish and said he wouldn’t be surprised to see oil hitting $100 per barrel by the end of next year.

Vitol has now revised down its oil demand growth forecast for next year to 1.3 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd expected earlier, Hardy said on Friday.

Gunvor’s chief executive Torbjörn Törnqvist thinks that oil prices will stay at current levels of around $75 a barrel Brent next year because producers are aware of the fact that higher prices would dent demand growth, which could lead to another glut.

Mercuria’s chief executive Marco Dunand, for his part, believes that because of the trade tensions and other factors, demand may not be as strong next year as initially expected.

“The chances are that we are going to be building oil inventories,” Dunand said at the Reuters Global Commodities Summit on Thursday.

If Brent Crude prices hold to $70 into 2019, OPEC and allies could start questioning whether they hadn’t overreacted with adding supply, and may reverse their strategy to cutting production again, Dunand said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

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India, Korea, US Said to Agree Iran Oil Waiver Outline

5th November 2018

(Bloomberg) — India and South Korea agreed with the U.S. on the outline of deals that would allow them to keep importing some Iranian oil, according to Asian officials with knowledge of the matter.

No final decision has been made and an announcement is unlikely before U.S. sanctions on Iran are reimposed Nov. 5, the officials said, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential. That opens the possibility that the terms could still be modified or the deals scrapped entirely.

The waivers would ensure at least some Iranian oil continues to flow to the global market, potentially calming fears of a supply crunch and further suppressing international oil prices just before mid-term elections in the U.S. Brent crude has fallen 14 percent from over $85 a barrel last month on signs that other OPEC producers will pump more to offset any supply gap.

Almost all buyers have been negotiating with the U.S. for waivers. That was after President Donald Trump in May withdrew from a nuclear agreement with Tehran hammered out by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and said he would reimpose economic curbs lifted under that 2015 accord.

India’s payments for the Iranian oil will go into a local escrow account, which can be used for barter trade with the Middle East producer, one of the people said. No money will directly go to Iran, according to the person.

While the waivers would signal an easing of Washington’s hard-line stance that buyers cut purchases to zero, the limiting of payments to an escrow account would mean the U.S. can maintain economic pressure on Iran by squeezing a critical source of its revenue.

Spokespeople for India’s oil ministry and South Korea’s energy ministry declined to comment.

The U.S. State Department on Wednesday referred to comments by spokesman Robert Palladino at a press briefing on Tuesday that while the goal of the U.S. remains to get buyers to cut Iranian oil purchases to zero, it’s prepared to work with countries that are reducing their imports on a case-by-case basis. When asked which countries were being considered for granting waivers, Palladino said there was “nothing to announce today”.

Several countries “may not be able to go all the way to zero” right away on purchases of Iranian oil after U.S. sanctions take effect, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton said on Wednesday at an event in Washington.

A waiver would allow companies to buy limited volumes of Iranian oil without running the risk of being shut out of the U.S. financial system. In India, it would provide some relief by allowing the purchase of relatively cheap crude as the government faces protests over higher fuel costs before national elections next year.

And for South Korea, a U.S. exemption would mean a resumption in imports of the Persian Gulf state’s South Pars condensate, a type of ultra-light oil that is particularly critical for the Asian nation because many of its plants are geared to process it.

Other Asian countries such as Japan have also since halted imports from Iran before the U.S. sanctions kick in. The Chinese government is said to have told some state-owned companies to avoid purchases.

–With assistance from Javier Blas, Serene Cheong, Sarah Chen and Alfred Cang.To contact the reporters on this story: Heesu Lee in Seoul at hlee425@bloomberg.net ;Debjit Chakraborty in New Delhi at dchakrabor10@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Pratish Narayanan at pnarayanan9@bloomberg.net Alexander Kwiatkowski

 

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Major Asian Importers Cut Iranian Oil Purchases To 32-Month Low

5th November 2018

As the start date of the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil draws near, key Asian buyers of Iranian oil dramatically cut their purchases from Iran in September to the lowest level since the previous sanctions on Tehran were lifted in January 2016, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing ship-tracking and government data.

Total imports from Iran by the four major Asian importers—China, India, South Korea, and Japan—plunged by 40.9 percent year on year in September 2018, to a total of 1.13 million bpd.

India increased its purchases of Iranian oil compared to September last year, but China and Japan significantly reduced their imports from Iran, while South Korea stopped Iranian oil imports altogether—for the first time since September 2012.

China—Iran’s single largest oil customer—saw its imports drop by 41.6 percent in September compared to the same month last year, to 458,184 bpd from 784,060 bpd, according to Refinitiv Eikon oil flow data.

India, the second biggest Iranian oil buyer in the world, imported 527,600 bpd on average in September, up by 27 percent on the year.

Japan cut its oil imports from Iran by 31 percent annually to 148,775 bpd in September, Reuters said, citing Japanese trade ministry data.

According to oil trade flow data, Japan loaded its last Iranian oil cargo in the middle of September.

Japanese refiners have temporarily suspended oil imports from Iran, buying alternative supplies instead, watchful of the situation to see if a waiver is forthcoming, the president of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), Takashi Tsukioka, said on September 20.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said earlier this month that it would be more difficult for Iranian oil customers to get waivers from the sanctions than it was during the Obama administration, and the United States would issue waivers, if any, only to buyers that have significantly reduced Iranian purchases.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

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Adnoc announces new discoveries in oil and gas

5th November 2018
  • The development will enable UAE achieve self-sufficiency in gas and potentially a net exporter

Abu Dhabi: Abu Dhabi on Sunday announced the new discovery of gas totalling 15 trillion standard cubic feet that is expected to enable the UAE achieve self-sufficiency in gas and potentially become a net gas exporter.

Currently, Abu Dhabi is tapping sour gas through the Shah gas project in the Western region of Abu Dhabi. The project reached its full production capacity of one billion cubic feet per day and there are plans to increase the capacity further. The UAE also imports gas from its neighbouring countries to meet the demand through Dolphin gas project.

“The gas strategy will sustain LNG production to 2040 and allow Adnoc to seize incremental LNG and gas-to-chemicals growth opportunities, where they arise, from the UAE’s dynamic demand or supply position and evolving energy mix,” Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) said in a statement on Sunday.

Under the new gas strategy, Adnoc will develop the Hail, Ghasha and Dalma project that taps into Abu Dhabi’s Arab formation, which is estimated to hold multiple trillions of cubic feet of recoverable gas. The project is expected to produce more than 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

Adnoc will also unlock other sources of gas, which include Abu Dhabi’s gas caps and unconventional gas reserves, as well as new natural gas accumulations, which will continue to be appraised and developed as the company pursues its exploration activities.

“The incremental increase in our oil production capacity will enable Adnoc to continue to be a reliable and trusted energy supplier that has the flexibility and capacity to respond and capitalise on the forecasted growth in demand for crude,” said Dr Sultan Ahmad Al Jaber, Minister of State and Adnoc Group CEO.

“At the same time, the substantial investments we will make, in the development of new and undeveloped reservoirs, gas caps and unconventional resources, will ensure we can competitively meet the UAE’s growing demand for power generation and industrial use.”

“While responding to domestic demand, we will maintain our international commercial commitments and seize incremental LNG and gas-to-chemicals growth opportunities.”

He also said the world is on the verge of consuming 100 million barrels of oil per day, with oil consumption increasing by an additional 10 million barrels per day by 2040.

Over the same period, demand for natural gas will increase by 40 per cent, while the market for higher-value polymers and petrochemicals will grow by 60 per cent.

According to Adnoc, one of the challenges in developing parts of gas resources has been the ‘sourness’ of parts of Abu Dhabi’s gas. However, a number of factors, including the gas pricing reforms introduced in 2016, enabling more market-based pricing, the availability of more advanced technology and Adnoc’s growing and industry-leading experience in developing sour gas reservoirs are making it possible for the company to unlock more gas resources and increasing value extraction.

 

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