Geological Risk Assessment
The exploration and production of oil and natural gas requires high levels of capital expenditures and are subject to natural hazards and other uncertainties, including the physical attributes of oil and gas fields.
Exploration drilling for oil and gas embeds numerous risks including the risk of dry holes or failure to find commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. There are a variety of factors that cause exploration failure: –
- Unexpected drilling conditions
- Pressure or heterogeneities in formations
- Equipment failures
- Several accidents
- Shortages or delays in delivery of equipment
- And many more…
Estimating the probability of discovery is an important part of prospect evaluation. However, geologists were found to perform risk assessment in a subjective manner. Large variations have been documented when different oil companies assessed the same prospect. It is essential that there is a risk assessment procedure that can be repeatedly deployed and is as objective as possible.
Geological risk assessment requires an evaluation of those geological factors that are critical to the discovery of recoverable quantities of hydrocarbons in a mapped prospect. The probability of discovery is defined as the product of the following: –
- Probability of reservoir
- Probability of trap
- Probability of hydrocarbon charge
- Probability of retention of hydrocarbons after accumulation
It is important to note that the four probabilities above have to be critically accessed with respect to presence and effectiveness.
The probability of discovery is an important framework when it involves economic evaluation and profitability studies of mapped prospects.
Petroleum Geology of the South and Central Atlantic is a 3-day course that will allow participants to understand the regional controls underpinning some of the world’s key frontier exploration provinces in the South and Central Atlantic. They will also learn how to assess the key factors controlling exploration success and failure in the region, including the complications involved in identifying pre-salt and turbidite plays. Course content will be substantiated with numerous case studies to aid participants in their understanding. For more information, please visit us at http://www.opuskinetic.com/training or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
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