Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
As the oil industry continues to evolve, a preview of the state of the industry in 2020 is as follow. The start of a host of new projects and the rise of non-OPEC markets aiding the oil supply, the global oil supply will increase much more than demand. Demand is expected to experience an average growth of 1.2% in 2019 as a whole and 1.4% in 2020.
Key findings from Oil 2019
- US shale powers global oil market transformation
- US gross exports overtake Russia and close in on Saudi Arabia
- Supply growth is supported by several countries
- Upstream investment rises for third straight year
- World oil demand growth eases
Generally, the analysis and forecast to 2024 describe that the United States will be the leader in the oil-supply growth until then. This is from the massive growth in US shale, US becoming an oil exporter while sharply reducing its purchases from the Middle East. By 2024, US will pass Russia in terms of oil exports and close the gap with Saudi Arabia. More countries will aid the supply growth – countries such as Brazil, Norway, Iraq, the UAE and Guyana. Global upstream capex for oil and gas is set to increase by 4% in 2019, with upstream investment on an upward trend for its third consecutive year.
The global demand for natural gas is expected to grow over the next five years. Thanks to the fast-growing Asian economies and its strong consumption, the demand for natural gas is on the rise. The is also supported by the continued development of the international gas trade.
Key trends from Gas 2019
- Growing demand for natural gas
- Most production growth by the US
- Changes in LNG markets
- Opportunities for new sources of supply in Europe
- A global price convergence?
Demand for natural gas demand jumped by 4.6% in 2018. This is mainly due to more countries becoming more environmentally friendly, such as US switching from coal to gas and China using gas in its goal to reduce air pollution. Demand in China alone increased by almost 18%. However, Asia Pacific plays a key role in driving gas demand – expected to account for 60% of the total consumption increase to 2024. The United States and China are the two largest individual contributors to supply growth to 2024, accounting together for over 50% of total production increase. The world LNG trade will undergo major changes, with China and India emerging as the major LNG buyers with increased imports to Europe. On the supply side, the emergence of a trio of leading exporters results in Australia overpassing Qatar in 2022 and being overpassed by the United States by 2024. Domestic production in Europe is set to fall at an average rate of 3.5% per year, presenting opportunities for new sources of supply in Europe. Lastly, the expansion of the LNG trade is encouraging greater price convergence.
4 Day MBA for Oil, Gas & Energy is a 4-day training course held from 15-18 October 2019 (Singapore) and 21-24 October 2019 (Kuala Lumpur). The 4 Day MBA for Oil & Gas and Energy Executives is a comprehensive course designed for those seeking business advantages. It covers the upstream (exploration and production), mid-stream and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry as well the main characteristics of electricity and renewables. It’s aimed at both technical and non-technical people who aim to gain a complete understanding of the dynamics of the industry including government representatives, professional advisors, investors and suppliers.
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15-18 October 2019 (Singapore)
21-24 October 2019 (Kuala Lumpur)