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According to GlobalData’s 2019 report, here are the top 10 oil and gas industry trends in 2019.
- Oil and gas supply
- Energy outlook
- Energy policies
- Natural gas supply
- Output of OPEC
- Oil price
- Oil demand
- Energy transition
- Inventories of oil
Oil and gas supply
Oil and gas supply top the main trend to watch this year. The supply of oil from the world’s oil-rich exporters such as Venezuela and Iran have a major impact on the global oil industry. US sanctions on top exporters are a testament to this, and recent events have shown how a retraction in the oil supply can lead to inflated global oil prices.
A recent trend includes companies and governments regularly producing their own findings and reports on the future of energy. This comes in the form of the input of gas influencers online, industry whitepapers and publications. They incorporate data projections regarding demand and supply and future energy policies, on a domestic or international scale. This includes the work of International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook report and Oil & Gas IQ.
Energy policies will have a huge impact on the industry. The US Department of Energy, for example, will create a set of energy policies pertaining to the production and exploration of all energy sources affecting the US, while adhering to guidelines put forward by international energy bodies. The rise in federal oversight with regards to methane and wastewater, and the return to more autonomy in oil-producing parts of the US are set to alter oil production in 2019. Changes to the ranks of OPEC may also alter how its 14 nation states manage their energy policies, and the political situation in the UK may affect policies relating to North Sea oil exploration and nuclear energy in Scotland.
Natural gas supply
The rise of LNG and the increased pressure on governments and state-owned companies, as well as private firms, to strive for environmental sustainability has led to the increase in the use of natural gas.
China, have been developing their natural gas infrastructure and investing in LNG imports – with 2019 being labelled by some as the year in which global LNG supply will outstrip demand, alongside a major backlash against coal – further increasing gas demand. With the EU bracing itself for a fall in gas prices, the natural gas market could be one of the most exciting areas in the industry in 2019.
Output of OPEC
The output of the 14 OPEC members, including 3 of the top 5 oil exporting countries – Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, will be closely looked at by the industry as Qatar leaving in 2019. Towards the end of 2018, Iranian supply dipped severely whilst Saudi output hit an all-time high.
Oil price is of course on the list of trends to watch in 2019. As oil prices edge upward in recent weeks, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures started the week showing modest gains. The WTI for June delivery added 31 cents Monday to settle at $62.25 per barrel. The benchmark bottomed out at $60.04 and peaked at $62.74 during the early week session.
Although fracking is popular in the US, it faces more challenges and problems in the UK, including bans in many countries. As UK plans to restart fracking in October 2018, it has since come up against legal challenges, and caused small-scale seismic activity.
Oil demand has increased every year since records began, and exceeded 100 million barrels worldwide in 2018. The top oil-consuming country in the world is the US, which consumed 19.88 billion barrels (Gbbl) in 2017, while China came in second with an oil demand of 13.23Gbbl. India (4.69Gbbl), Japan (3.99 Gbbl) and Saudi Arabia (3.92Gbbl) make up the top 5.
Many governments and firms have been laying out energy policies to foster an energy transition to more renewable and cleaner sources of energy. The changing make-up of fuel use within a nation or region is a trend to watch. This includes the growth of electric vehicles, the decline of coal, the rise of renewable energy companies such as Orsted.
Inventories of oil
The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude oil inventories monitors the change in the number of crude oil barrels held by US firms on a weekly basis. Inventories can also apply to natural gas and coal. Across the world, 2018 had very little effect on oil inventory.
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